Carnival Corporation accelerates bookings and improves forecasts despite fuel costs

  • Record results: revenues of 8.435 billion, net profit of 1.920 billion and adjusted EBITDA of 3.000 billion.
  • Reservations and deposits: Customer deposits of 7.600 billion and occupancy and prices for 2027 at record highs.
  • Forecast: Carnival improves its annual forecast by more than 150 million despite rising fuel costs.
  • . Costa Cruises launches winter campaign and Alicante strengthens its promotion with Carnival UK.

Carnival Corporation

Carnival Corporation , the world's largest cruise company, has released quarterly results that exceeded its own forecasts. The company reported record revenue and net income, driven by continued strong demand and cost discipline that partially offset rising fuel prices. The parent company of brands such as AIDA, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises, Princess Cruises, and Seabourn, also updated its outlook for the remainder of the year.

The fiscal third quarter, ending August 31, resulted in revenues of $8.435 billion, compared to $8.153 billion in the same period of the previous year. Net income attributable to shareholders reached $1.920 billion , and adjusted net income was $2.000 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.000 billion, in line with the previous record high and $110 million above the June guidance. Analysts had expected revenues of around $8.400 billion and adjusted earnings per share of approximately $1,35, but the final figure was $1,43 adjusted.

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Record bookings and good prospects for 2027

One of the most striking figures has been the performance of bookings. Customer deposits reached a record $7.600 billion in the quarter, $500 million more than the previous high, even though capacity growth remained flat over the next twelve months. Occupancy and booked prices for 2027 are at record levels , and the company says 2028 has also started better than last year. CEO Josh Weinstein noted that booking volumes are significantly outperforming the previous year and growing faster than capacity.

The company expects net income in constant currency to increase by approximately 1,7% in the fourth quarter compared to record levels in 2025, rising to 2,3% after reflecting the accounting impact of Carnival Cruise Line's loyalty program. For the full year, the operating improvement exceeds the June guidance by more than $150 million , even after accounting for higher fuel costs. Adjusted full-year EBITDA is expected to be around $7.140 billion, adjusted net income close to $3.080 billion, and adjusted earnings per share approximately $2,24. For the fourth quarter, adjusted net income is estimated at approximately $274 million, and adjusted earnings per share at $0,20. Capital expenditures for new ships are expected to be $0,3 billion, and for existing ships, $0,9 billion.

More revenue, but also more fuel expenses

The less positive aspect came from costs. Fuel expenses rose sharply, reaching $615 million in the quarter , compared to $451 million a year earlier, with the price per metric ton increasing from $607 to $826. The combined impact of fuel and currency fluctuations reduced profit by approximately $131 million, equivalent to $0,10 per share. Even so, the company managed to improve fuel consumption per unit of capacity by 3,8% and keep adjusted cruise costs, excluding fuel, 1,8% higher than expected. Gross margins fell by 1,3% due to higher oil prices.

Carnival Cruise Line
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Management has emphasized that its efficiency program includes hundreds of small measures, from renegotiating rates with suppliers to reducing logistics operations on shipping days. David Bernstein, Chief Financial Officer, explained that most of these initiatives are structural and long-term. The company also used the quarter to refinance $500 million of 7% coupon debt, among the most expensive on its balance sheet.

Balance sheet, buybacks and return to shareholder

Cash generation has allowed Carnival to strengthen its balance sheet. So far this year, it has repurchased approximately $1.200 billion worth of shares, of which almost $800 million were executed since the beginning of the third quarter. In addition, it paid $204 million in dividends during the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $618 million. S&P upgraded the company's credit rating, which already has investment grade from a second agency, and following this upgrade, it has no remaining secured debt. Total debt was reduced to $23.912 billion, and the net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio fell to 3,1 times , from 3,4 times at the end of the previous year.

On the operational front, the company continues to expand its destination offerings. Celebration Key has celebrated its first anniversary with nearly 2,5 million guests. RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay, and Isla Tropicale each surpassed 250.000 visitors following their upgrades. Carnival Cruise Line launched its Carnival Rewards loyalty program on September 1 , with co-branded credit card issuance increasing by over 300% in the following weeks. It also unveiled the Carnival Destiny, which will arrive in 2029 as the first ship in the Ace class, and Holland America Line announced the transformation of the Zuiderdam. Princess Cruises became the first global cruise line to launch a native app on ChatGPT. The company was included on TIME and Forbes' lists of best companies and employers and published its sixteenth annual sustainability report.

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Spain and Europe: Coastal campaign and promotion in Alicante

Within the group, the Spanish cruise line Costa Cruises has launched a winter campaign in Spain, running from September 21 to November 22. The plan combines linear television, connected TV, digital channels, and social media, and reinforces digital outdoor advertising in Madrid's Plaza de Callao and on the city's Metro network. The cruise line, headquartered in Genoa and with over 75 years of history, operates eight ships under the Italian flag and markets itineraries throughout the Mediterranean, Northern Europe, the Caribbean, South America, and Asia, in addition to its world cruises. Its creative approach is based on the Sea & Land Destinations concept , which combines onboard entertainment with the exploration of iconic locations, from the Canary Islands to Cape Horn.

In Alicante, the port and several tourism entities organized a familiarization trip for representatives from Carnival UK , the group that owns P&O Cruises and Cunard and is part of Carnival Corporation. The visit, developed under the concept 'Alicante Premium From Castle to Sea' and coordinated with Noatum Cruise Services, showcased Santa Bárbara Castle, La Ereta Park, the historic center, the Santa Cruz neighborhood, the Central Market with a tasting of local products, and the Global Ports cruise terminal. Destination Experiences Executive Emily Pillinger participated in the event, which is expected to help increase cruise ship calls in future seasons. In 2026, the Carnival Dream inaugurated the group's arrivals on March 2nd, and P&O Cruises has scheduled approximately twenty calls. Growth of around 20% is projected for 2027 compared to the 110 calls expected in 2026.

The figures for the Port of Alicante reflect this momentum: between January and August , 64 cruise ship arrivals and 191.686 cruise passengers were recorded , 11,2% more than in the same period of 2025. The city expects to exceed 325.000 visitors this year and an initial economic impact of 84 million euros. A delegation from the Port, Global Ports, and the Alicante Costa Blanca Tourism and Cruises Association also participated in the Seatrade Cruise Med trade fair, held in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, with 18 meetings with cruise lines, tour operators, and international tour operators. The next European CLIA meeting, scheduled for March, could attract new companies and confirm more sailings. MSC Cruises has been operating in Alicante since 2022, while Costa Cruises and Fred. Olsen have begun or are about to begin trial operations.

Risks to monitor

The main risk remains fuel prices . The company estimates that a 10% change in the cost per metric ton would impact adjusted net income by approximately $59 million. It is also exposed to exchange rate fluctuations: a 1% movement in currencies would impact around $7 million, and a 100 basis point change in variable debt would impact $4 million. Added to this are geopolitical uncertainty, potential fluctuations in European and Caribbean demand, and the effects of deployments in the Mediterranean. Management insists that the damage from the conflict in the Middle East and capacity adjustments in Europe is temporary, but the market wants confirmation that strong reserves will be maintained in the coming quarters.

Before the earnings release, several analysts had lowered their price targets due to fuel costs and weak prices in some regions. Deutsche Bank set its target at $29, Goldman Sachs at $30, and Barclays at $33, while Jefferies maintained a buy recommendation with a $33 target. The company trades at a lower multiple than rivals such as Royal Caribbean and Norwegian, according to market data, although its debt level remains a key factor for investors.

The overall picture from the quarter is one of a company selling more at better prices , with record deposits and 2027 bookings at record highs, while trying to contain the impact of fuel costs and continue reducing debt. In Spain, this momentum is reflected in campaigns like the one for Costa Cruises and the promotional work for Alicante with Carnival UK to attract more port calls. The challenge for the coming months will be to confirm that demand holds and that cost pressures don't overshadow operational improvements.

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